However, as if the world was deprived of tragedy and was rejoicing for too long, weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to death and destruction in Ukraine and economic turmoil around the globe. 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not comparable to any other invasion in history due to its geoeconomic significance. Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of commodities such as crude, natural gas, iron and steel, wheat, and edible oils that have a direct impact on the inflation levels in major world economies.  

While economists were concerned about a significant drop in consumption levels arising from COVID-19-related lockdowns and suppression of demand sending crude prices to $0 per barrel two years ago, now they are concerned about the exact opposite — skyrocketing crude prices touching more than $130 per barrel and natural gas hitting $5.7 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu). 

There were also price increases on wheat, edible oils and other commodities with the potential to directly impact the average Joe not just in the U.S. and Western world but in the global south, where inflation shocks are even more acute.  

Adding fuel to fire, the U.S. chose the worst possible weapon to deter Russia — economic sanctions. By sanctioning Russia, the world’s third-largest producer of crude and largest supplier of wheat, the U.S. has set off dynamite that could burst into a recession in the next six months, as several economists have predicted.