Negotiation or Escalation? Terrorism or World War? What's Next?
Over the next several days the CSS will endeavor to provide updated information on the war with Iran. Soft targets, hard targets, military targets, government personnel, high profile political targets, civil populations, transportation, infrastructure, cultural sites, schools, malls as well as public events. The only people that will be safe are leaders of the Democratic Party.
As an aside before a first analysis is offered, let’s take a look at the crashed airliner inside of Iran. This has strong implications, but as of yet, unknown implications with regard to Ukraine’s extreme corruption. I have had two conversations and one written exchange with pilots who have had extensive experience with crashed aircraft. All three stated that this was airliner crash and the that the plane certain appears to have been shot down.
I worked crash retrieval and crash investigations for the Navy in 11 of my 20 years. What we are seeing is no crash. That plane was brought down. I am not going to say more than that at this time, but my confidence is nearly 100% on this observation...
The CSS does not have any other information at this time. However, I would like to say that in light of what I have learned about state-sponsored Ukrainian arms dealers, I would certainly like to view the passenger manifest. Something here is just too coincidental. What I am left thinking is who had to be killed to coverup Putin’s involvement in sending WMD’s to Iran? Some I know are suggesting that this was a hit by the Democrats to prevent further exposure. That is not logical as the Democrats would not have had the means to carry this act out. However, the Russians certainly would have, but I digress. One thing you can count on is that the mainstream media will print anything about this plane crash that will lead as far away from Ukrainian arms dealers as possible. Just because the Democrats and the MSM did not have the means, doesn’t mean that they are not going to spin the event to take attention off of the Pelosi, Schiff, Obama, Kerry and Romney’s illegal actions.
What Will Be the First set of Targets?
Let’s begin this discussion with what Iran cannot do with help from Russia and China. They cannot launch a military invasion of any significance. Therefore, if they are acting alone, their options are severely limited.
One could expect the rhetoric of the Iranian leaders, themselves to provide clues as to their immediate thinking.
This analysis is provided by a culmination of analyses by three experts. Later today, I am interviewing the creator of the Counter-terrorism unit and strategies for the government following 911, John Guandolo. Guandolo is the nation’s best expert on the psychology of terrorism and what is likely to come next. The interview will be available sometime late tonight. But until then, what are the Iranian spin-masters saying?
Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, stated that the U.S. would suffer consequences for the killing of Soleimani "at a time and place of Iran's choosing." That is blustering, however, the first Iranian demands accompanied Zarif’s statement as he added the U.S. must leave the Middle East and warned of a new multi-generational war could erupt. This is a real threat that could tremendously impact the economy. Certainly, the war will be asymmetrical and of course, and an indefinite violent way of life in the Middle East.
Americans, for the short-term, can breathe a sigh of relief, because, initially, the Iranians are attempting to appear to follow the rule of law. This is in full evidence as Zarif, tweeted that Iran “took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” under Article 51 of the United Nations charter, as they militarily attacked two US bases in Iraq.
"We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression," Zarif said in the tweet. If one is looking for a sign that negotiations could take place, Zarif just provided this hope. More Iranian rhetoric along these lines has surfaced which seems to indicate, that at least for now the Iranians are going to follow a measure response scenario that only attacks military personnel and assets as various public figures in Iran have identified at least 35 US targets that could be hit with retaliatory strikes after the country’s president chillingly vowed to exact revenge for the killing of its top general.
However, the promise of escalation looms large as Iranian General Gholamali Abuhamzeh, a prominent Iranian General, offered few specifics as he performed his own version of blustering naming not only American warships in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, but also mentioned as a potential target, the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. This information was obtained in an interview between Abuhamzeh and CNN. As an aside, can one only imagine if the New York Times had interviewed Tojo after the attack on Pearl Harbor? There you have it, CNN providing favor for America’s enemies.
Again if there is a going to be a settlement that does not escalate to world conflict, words must be chosen carefully after this point. However, Trump continued issuing warnings to Iran by tweet. “These Media Posts will serve as notification to the United States Congress that should Iran strike any U.S. person or target, the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner,” Trump tweeted on Sunday afternoon. “Such legal notice is not required, but is given nevertheless!”
My experts advice to the President is “speak softly, but carry a big stick”.
As far as other actions, the Iranian regime could also potentially attack US troops in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region, along with US embassies or other targets.
Domestically, as of this morning, cyberattacks appear to be a real possibility, but that could change in the posting of a Trump tweet.
The Internet is going crazy with doomsday scenarios. Certainly, America should be concerned with the worst case scenario. It is clear from several reports, that the government is preparing for the worst. The CSS received information last evening that Pelosi and Pence (the Speaker of the House and Vice President, numbers #1 and #2 in the order of succession) have been taken to separate Continuity of Government bunkers.
Trump’s statements and actions are critically important at this time in terms of influencing Iranian actions. The advice of my experts is that Trump stay off Twitter and not bluster. He would be justified in formulating a military response to what happened to our bases last night. Two days ago, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, threatened Iranian leaders should they fail to stand down or more Iranian leaders could be targeted. This was an inflammatory and needless escalation of words. Yes, our embassy was attacked, but if Pompeo is going to threaten foreign leaders, no political leader within the United States. With statements like these, one has to wonder if the government has enough bunkers to accommodate high profile US targets.
People ask should I go to the mall, the store, the movies and that sporting event? My experts say yes because if we alter our actions out of fear and intimidation, Iran will feel more emboldened to become more dramatic in their approach.
In the next article in this series, an analysis of high-profile targets will be offered in the areas of infrastructure. Pray for peace!